Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 3 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 18 July 2026 at 20:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 49th strongest of the 113 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 27 May 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 7 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 4:07PM EDT until July 18 at 4:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Urban PEI: 45,675 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 27 May 2026
- September 5, 2026 · score 37 · 13.0 km
- September 4, 2026 · score 37 · 13.0 km
- August 10, 2026 · score 39 · 21.3 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 38.1364, -77.7206 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (29 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 45.7K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Date | 2026-07-18 — time not reported by the source |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.10638c2f8d59b3b89ddeddaf86e2c5c3 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-18 — time not reported.
First archived: 2026-07-18T20:07:57.778Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Montgomery, MD; Loudoun, VA; Charles City, VA; Chesterfield, VA; Hanover, VA; Henrico, VA; Prince George, VA; City of Colonial Heights, VA; City of Hopewell, VA; City of Petersburg, VA; Anne Arundel, MD; Baltimore, MD; Howard, MD; Baltimore City, MD and 11 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 4:07PM EDT until July 18 at 4:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-07-18T16:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 16 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.10638c2f8d59b3b89ddeddaf86e2c5c33f0b72b7.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.23fcfebf35506bb750883d7a83586a9e30dbdebc.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.75a2f37ac62ff31b5babbd6370ff89c67c16ea5a.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1a53fad4f7dff714b28feec7c26995aa212645ac.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fd7ecd13a145b4fc8230a0bc92ee181fc04c0fa9.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4b7aa11745b750d8ec106cd410e8691124f56b55.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.aba8cc5ffc86a9fcd7d8bd3535b983686366f987.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6f09d7253eccad964e9d43727c902e8b58dd707a.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.267627d8762f89d2a409cb4e19a3aa3bfd361aa8.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.28b8f58f95f43e90015129f38b7567ac1859ffd3.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6ad0137304375747b5b05a8602ae609360336af3.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7f27fb1df7f787e0794514b01dfedd18929a6400.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fe706b73f2feef4fc7c0ac3b8b31876eec962739.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6a260d1737f7c0a4c1a3a404b6f3a3bdbe3c19c9.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fc8f976d0fdc3db4e20c7cbe3fe13b00b97d6409.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ddd84383277ba1673b9a07f24266aab4c772b509.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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